Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 10 2021 | 10798 | 46475 | 345 | 104 | 244 | 344 |
| February 11 2021 | 10815 | 46592 | 345 | 104 | 232 | 340 |
| February 12 2021 | 10826 | 46665 | 346 | 104 | 229 | 328 |
| February 13 2021 | 10837 | 46765 | 346 | 104 | 200 | 307 |
| February 14 2021 | 10856 | 46849 | 347 | 104 | 184 | 302 |
| February 15 2021 | 10867 | 46932 | 347 | 104 | 160 | 284 |
| February 16 2021 | 10871 | 47026 | 347 | 104 | 128 | 274 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -1 | 0.7 | 6.2% | 8 | 0.07% | 22 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.6 | 10.9% | 14 | 0.1% | 27 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 3.4 | 27.3% | 35 | 0.17% | 80 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.6 | 14.1% | 18 | 0.13% | 37 | 0.27% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.3 | 4.7% | 6 | 0.06% | 23 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.7 | 14.1% | 18 | 0.14% | 28 | 0.22% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.7 | 10.9% | 14 | 0.12% | 26 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.9 | 11.7% | 15 | 0.14% | 31 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 4 | 11.9 | 100% | 128 | 0.12% | 274 | 0.26% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 10 2021 | 6932 | 27372 | 213 | 87 | 110 | 195 |
| February 11 2021 | 6944 | 27456 | 213 | 87 | 111 | 175 |
| February 12 2021 | 6954 | 27512 | 214 | 87 | 121 | 167 |
| February 13 2021 | 6961 | 27571 | 214 | 88 | 98 | 160 |
| February 14 2021 | 6971 | 27601 | 214 | 88 | 91 | 140 |
| February 15 2021 | 6970 | 27624 | 215 | 89 | 74 | 129 |
| February 16 2021 | 6976 | 27670 | 215 | 90 | 66 | 135 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 4.1% | 3 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.0 | 14.9% | 11 | 0.13% | 24 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 1.6 | 21.6% | 16 | 0.22% | 22 | 0.31% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.3 | 12.2% | 9 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.1 | 16.2% | 12 | 0.15% | 23 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.0 | 14.9% | 11 | 0.11% | 24 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.7 | 8.1% | 6 | 0.07% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 8.1% | 6 | 0.08% | 14 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 6 | 7.7 | 100% | 74 | 0.11% | 143 | 0.22% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 10 2021 | 5205 | 18255 | 225 | 74 | 71 | 146 |
| February 11 2021 | 5217 | 18290 | 225 | 74 | 83 | 130 |
| February 12 2021 | 5225 | 18319 | 225 | 74 | 90 | 117 |
| February 13 2021 | 5236 | 18352 | 227 | 74 | 89 | 114 |
| February 14 2021 | 5245 | 18376 | 228 | 74 | 82 | 111 |
| February 15 2021 | 5254 | 18388 | 230 | 74 | 75 | 120 |
| February 16 2021 | 5256 | 18409 | 230 | 74 | 73 | 121 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.7 | 9.6% | 7 | 0.13% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12 | 0.22% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.0 | 11% | 8 | 0.18% | 17 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.6 | 6.8% | 5 | 0.09% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.3 | 11% | 8 | 0.16% | 13 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.1 | 11% | 8 | 0.12% | 16 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.3 | 16.4% | 12 | 0.19% | 17 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.7 | 17.8% | 13 | 0.21% | 24 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 2 | 8.7 | 100% | 73 | 0.16% | 121 | 0.27% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 10 2021 | 11979 | 50369 | 347 | 75 | 251 | 521 |
| February 11 2021 | 11996 | 50514 | 339 | 75 | 243 | 493 |
| February 12 2021 | 12008 | 50660 | 339 | 75 | 234 | 361 |
| February 13 2021 | 12012 | 50757 | 340 | 75 | 197 | 325 |
| February 14 2021 | 12027 | 50826 | 340 | 75 | 184 | 299 |
| February 15 2021 | 12034 | 50893 | 341 | 75 | 165 | 281 |
| February 16 2021 | 12059 | 51029 | 343 | 75 | 166 | 285 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 1.4 | 7.8% | 13 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.9 | 19.3% | 32 | 0.19% | 48 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.9 | 13.3% | 22 | 0.1% | 56 | 0.26% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.3 | 16.3% | 27 | 0.2% | 45 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 2.3 | 13.9% | 23 | 0.17% | 38 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.1 | 11.4% | 19 | 0.13% | 33 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.6 | 9% | 15 | 0.11% | 25 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 4 | 1.9 | 9% | 15 | 0.12% | 22 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 25 | 16.3 | 100% | 166 | 0.14% | 285 | 0.24% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 10 2021 | 38906 | 315853 | 1182 | 264 | 957 | 1510 |
| February 11 2021 | 39039 | 316434 | 1183 | 264 | 1019 | 1439 |
| February 12 2021 | 39124 | 316911 | 1186 | 264 | 1039 | 1417 |
| February 13 2021 | 39212 | 316900 | 1191 | 264 | 1048 | 1364 |
| February 14 2021 | 39270 | 317224 | 1193 | 264 | 898 | 1321 |
| February 15 2021 | 39317 | 317583 | 1193 | 264 | 830 | 1297 |
| February 16 2021 | 39346 | 317359 | 1194 | 264 | 758 | 1261 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.0 | 4.4% | 33 | 0.05% | 57 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 22.1 | 26.8% | 203 | 0.29% | 348 | 0.49% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 21.7 | 30.6% | 232 | 0.22% | 375 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 9.3 | 12.7% | 96 | 0.13% | 145 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 8.4 | 10.3% | 78 | 0.12% | 124 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 5.9 | 8.2% | 62 | 0.09% | 114 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.4 | 3.7% | 28 | 0.05% | 50 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | -1 | 2.1 | 3.4% | 26 | 0.05% | 48 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 29 | 77.0 | 100% | 758 | 0.14% | 1261 | 0.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 10 2021 | 551871 | 2546576 | 25090 | 6129 | 9456 | 15325 |
| February 11 2021 | 553110 | 2552481 | 25142 | 6140 | 9945 | 14762 |
| February 12 2021 | 554048 | 2557088 | 25197 | 6151 | 9788 | 14133 |
| February 13 2021 | 554800 | 2560840 | 25268 | 6161 | 9363 | 13392 |
| February 14 2021 | 555303 | 2564523 | 25302 | 6162 | 8348 | 12888 |
| February 15 2021 | 555708 | 2568204 | 25340 | 6166 | 7487 | 12543 |
| February 16 2021 | 556332 | 2570798 | 25422 | 6204 | 7177 | 12072 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 37 | 46.0 | 6.1% | 436 | 0.07% | 737 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 105 | 119.3 | 15.4% | 1104 | 0.15% | 1840 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 81 | 119.4 | 16% | 1149 | 0.15% | 1931 | 0.26% |
| 30-39 | 95 | 109.1 | 14.7% | 1053 | 0.14% | 1732 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 75 | 100.9 | 13% | 934 | 0.13% | 1615 | 0.23% |
| 50-59 | 91 | 110.7 | 14.9% | 1071 | 0.13% | 1748 | 0.21% |
| 60-69 | 78 | 83.1 | 10.8% | 775 | 0.1% | 1340 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 62 | 66.0 | 9.1% | 655 | 0.1% | 1129 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 624 | 754.6 | 100% | 7177 | 0.12% | 12072 | 0.21% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.2 | 19.8 | 38.2 | 11.9 | 29.9 | 11.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.1 | 6.6 | 14.4 | 13.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.7 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 23.4% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.1 | 29 | 26.3 | 16.3 | 31.7 | 11.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.1 | 49 | 36.1 | 77 | 111.4 | 22.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.7 | 24.3 | 25.5 | 754.6 | 1186.6 | 15.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.63 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5311"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges